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Thunderstorms expected over the next few days, periods of wet and dry weather continues.

This week will feature periods of unsettled weather as we sit along the northern storm track resulting in low pressure systems sliding through that will effect southern manitoba.There will be a potential for some severe weather as well, however isolated in nature.

The day on Tuesday should start sunny and warm, with increasing cloud in the afternoon and a risk for some thunderstorms along a cold front that will be diving south through the day. There will be enough instability to spark off some severe storms with CAPES of 1,000-2000 J/Kg. These storms will be elevated and short lived pop up storms, but if one gets under a storm there will be a potential for gusty winds >70km/h to pea sized hail. High temperatures of 25C expected for Winnipeg, with a low of 12C.

Wednesday will be much more unstable with stronger daytime heating, and more humidity levels will result in a decent chance for very unstable conditions CAPES >2,000 J/Kg expected with EHIs between 1 and 2 alongside Lifted indexes of -4 to -6. Thunderstorms are likely to pop up on Wednesday with a possibility that they may become severe, areas best at risk will be in the interlakes south into the Winnipeg area west towards Brandon. The risk will include large hail, damaging winds and intense lightning. High's look to be closer to the 25C mark with humidex readings getting above 30C, lows generally near 15 or 16C.

Long Range Storm and severe weather chances continue through to next week as several weather models hint at just enough humidity and warm temperatures to create unstable conditions with CAPES near or just above 1,000 J/Kg-2,000J/Kg. It will not be a huge washout, some places will see storms others may not. There is also a distinct possibility that there could be supercells or a squall line on one of those days. Temperatures will hover near normal to just above seasonal. Stay tuned here for updates through the week on storm potential.


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